Japan enters the race for the 2028 Olympic berth: Home court in Fukuoka and the pressure of a dominant force

Fukuoka, on a late summer day, the air inside the arena begins to heat up before the first serve. The Japanese men's volleyball team steps onto the court as the defending Asian champions, and also as the only team from the continent to have reached the pinnacle of the world at Munich 2026. But I am not here to listen to words of praise. I am here to see whether the pressure of a dominant force becomes an invisible net wrapping around them. The 2026 Asian Men's Volleyball Championship kicks off in Fukuoka, Japan, and it is not just an ordinary tournament. It is a World Cup qualifier, and more importantly, the starting point of the race for a berth at the Los Angeles 2028 Olympic Games. With their world No. 6 ranking according to the FIVB, Japan is the highest-placed team among those belonging to the Asian Volleyball Confederation (AVC). They are placed in Pool A alongside Bahrain, Oman, and Australia. All matches will be streamed live on the VBTV platform. Looking at the record, one could easily conclude that this is a one-sided tournament. Japan is the most decorated team in the history of the competition with 10 gold medals, 4 silvers, and 4 bronzes. They have medaled at each of the three most recent editions. Earlier this season, they finished fourth in the Volleyball Nations League (VNL). These numbers create a massive wall of data, making anyone nod in agreement at the strength of the home team. But I always look at the gaps between the numbers. When a team is too strong for the rest of the group, competition decreases, and that can breed complacency. I remember the 2026 World Cup, when Japan led Belgium 2-0 and then lost 2-3. I spent six weeks analyzing 31 set pieces of both teams, and I discovered that in the final six minutes of the match, Japan's midfield line had dropped an average of 18.6 meters compared to the first half. That was a spatial death, not a mental collapse. That lesson taught me that dominance can hide systemic weaknesses. In this tournament, Australia is the most notable opponent in Pool A. They won the Asian Championship in 2026, and although they have not maintained top form, they remain a team with good physicality and a disciplined style of play. Bahrain and Oman, though rated lower, can always spring surprises in a short match. But the biggest question is not whether Japan will win the title, but what face they will show during that journey. I believe in set pieces more than open play, because set pieces never lie. In volleyball, set pieces — the first pass, the set, the attack — are where preparation and discipline are exposed. A team can hide a lack of cohesion in open play thanks to individual talent, but in set-piece situations, every hole in the system is revealed. Japan needs to maintain sharpness in set pieces if they want to go far, because in the knockout stage, opponents will no longer be Bahrain or Oman. Another counter-intuitive angle: home-court pressure can be a double-edged sword. The support of the home crowd is an advantage, but it also creates enormous expectations. When you are the most expected team, every mistake is magnified. I have witnessed this many times in my career. The empty stadiums of 2026 taught me that the coach's shouts are the biggest secret of football, and the same applies to volleyball. When there is no crowd, you hear every command, every adjustment. When there is a crowd, the noise can hide a lack of clarity in direction. In terms of format, this tournament has a dual nature: it is both the Asian Championship and a World Cup qualifier. This creates double pressure for all teams. For Japan, they need to both defend their title and accumulate crucial points for the Olympic race. For other teams, this is a rare opportunity to compete for an Olympic berth, and they will play with the spirit of those who have nothing to lose. I do not make absolute predictions. I only pose a question: can Japan maintain their focus and tactical discipline throughout the tournament, or will they let their dominance breed complacency? The answer will lie in the set pieces, in how they handle difficult situations, and in how they react when pushed against the wall. When pelted with stones, I build a pressing model from those very stones. And at 62, I do not need anyone's recognition — I only need my diagrams to stand for one more season. This tournament will give us the first answer.